As the headlines scream of huge numbers of university deferrals this summer, Kevin Gilmartin examines the implications for next year’s applicants. 

Deferral danger?

The background 

Recent headlines in the education and mainstream press have referred to universities paying ‘deferral bonuses’ of £10,000 to students to persuade them to defer their place until September 2022. 

The main reason for this unusual course of action was that teacher assessed grades (TAGs) meant more students reached their offer grades than expected. In pre-pandemic times it was roughly one in two students who met their offer; this year it was more like three out of four. These were typically at the higher tariff end of offers with medicine and dentistry being the most heavily over-subscribed. 

Universities such as Bristol and Exeter, along with other Russell group members, were particularly mentioned, often citing the impossibility of finding additional student accommodation as the reason for offering these payments (let alone the government’s refusal to lift the entry cap on most university course numbers – due to an understandable concern about the impact this would have on lower tariff institutions). 

In tandem with these media stories were other headlines around unprecedented numbers of students deferring their university place this year. 

According to UCAS’ figures on 7 September (tinyurl.com/348962jy) there were nearly 30,000 deferrals. However, while this only represents about 6% of all undergraduate applicants, the actual percentage of 18 year-olds deferring a place rose by 16% in comparison with 2020. This means of course that all those deferring students will be competing with the present Year 13 students come next summer. 

The reasons for the rise in deferrals seem to have followed a few understandable narratives: students who had to make choices without the opportunity to visit the university first; students hoping that in a year’s time the ‘full uni experience’ will be available (no more online Freshers’ Week and online lectures); students wanting to let Covid die down further before entering university life; students realising that their higher grades might mean they could now apply for more courses; some students realising that gap year travel might be opening up again; some realising that temporary gap year employment opportunities in sectors such as care and hospitality were starting to look plentiful again and, of course, some just wanting to take the £10,000. 

What might this mean in practice? 

It is likely that most of the students who have deferred their place will be at the higher end of UCAS points. So, the competition for the higher tariff places will be even more intense. In addition, some students will have received higher grades than they might have hoped for and will be putting in a fresh UCAS application to higher tariff universities (the so-called ‘high-achieving re-appliers’). Some students might decide to try for courses they previously thought were unattainable. 

All of this serves to increase the pressure at the top end. It is fair to say that some of the most popular courses for a 2022 start will have more of their places already allocated than in previous years and with a continued increase in the UK 18 year-old population, there is a demographic element in play as well. 

Should we be doing anything different in schools and colleges? 

The short answer is probably ‘no’. There really doesn’t seem to be that much we should be doing with students that is not ‘normal’ good practice. The initial five application choices give opportunities to be both aspirational and realistic, although we could perhaps reinforce the importance of at least one choice being the realistic lower tariff insurance application. UCAS also experienced a huge rise in interest from students enquiring about apprenticeships (especially degree apprenticeships). Maybe we need to focus more attention on giving better access to information on these parallel alternatives to the traditional undergraduate programme? Not because there may not be enough top-end university places to go round, but because they are often wonderful opportunities full stop. 

In summary though, no matter how competitive next year may be, we should continue to offer students the best possible advice and guidance that we can and, as a result, students should continue to apply for the courses they want to study. That aspect of the university application process should certainly never change, no matter what the number of deferrals is, or how many deferral incentive payments end up being offered. 

Kevin Gilmartin
ASCL Post-16 and Colleges Specialist 
@ascl_uk

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